Like many, the announcement of today's Autumn Budget filled me with dread. While the full OBR report is a deliberately dense read, the consequences for disabled people are dangerously clear. This article cuts through the complexity to show you exactly how the budget impacts your welfare and finances.

Today the Chancellor stood up today to deliver a Budget that, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), relied heavily on two things to balance the books: stealth taxation and aggressive cuts to disability welfare.

While the news headlines will focus on GDP figures and tax freezes, the cold fiscal reality for disabled people and their families is a confirmed plan for financial insecurity and rising poverty.

1. The £4.8 Billion Welfare Savings Hammer

The government's determination to reduce public spending is driven by the rising cost of working-age sickness and disability benefits. The OBR’s Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) – November 2025 officially costed the necessary savings to plug the hole in the nation's finances.

• The total package of reforms is confirmed to deliver £4.8 billion in welfare savings by 2029-30.

• This saving is not achieved through better support, but through tighter eligibility rules that will restrict benefits for hundreds of thousands of people. Crucially, the independent Timms Review into Personal Independence Payment (PIP), which will determine the specific framework for these tighter eligibility rules, is yet to formally begin or conclude its work. This means the precise, day-to-day impact on claimants is still unknown, despite the financial cut being confirmed.

2. The PIP and WCA Squeeze: What It Means for Your Income

The most significant financial impacts stem from the tightening of eligibility for two key benefits:

A. Personal Independence Payment (PIP) Cuts:

The OBR confirmed that new rules and stricter assessments for PIP are expected to drastically reduce the caseload:

• 800,000 people (a mix of current and future claimants) are expected to receive less PIP, or lose their entitlement entirely, by the end of the decade.

• For those affected, the financial cost is substantial. Analysis suggests those losing out face an average loss of up to £4,500 per year money that pays for essential mobility, heating, and daily living costs.

B. The Universal Credit Health Element Risk:

The government remains committed to its long-term plan to scrap the Work Capability Assessment (WCA) and link the Universal Credit (UC) health element to the PIP assessment.

• The financial support for being unable to work (currently around £2,400 per year) will be at risk for an estimated 600,000 people who currently receive the UC health element but do not meet the criteria for PIP.

• The OBR has flagged this policy transition as creating a material fiscal risk, but for claimants, it is a risk to their basic survival income.

3. The Stealth Tax Hit: An Income Squeeze for All:

The Budget’s primary revenue-raiser was the extension of the Income Tax Threshold Freeze until the end of the 2029-30 financial year.

This is the ultimate stealth tax, and it hurts disabled workers and those on taxable incomes just as much as anyone else:

• As wages and taxable benefits are uprated due to inflation, the frozen threshold means more people will be dragged into paying tax, or paying tax at a higher rate.

• If you rely on income from work, a taxable private pension, or certain benefits, this freeze reduces the real-terms value of your money.

4. The Final Cost: A Rise in Poverty:

The final, damning assessment from the OBR’s reports is the overall consequence of these changes on financial security.

The government’s own modelling, costed in the OBR’s EFO, estimates that the combined impact of tax and benefit changes will push an additional 250,000 people (including 50,000 children) into relative poverty after housing costs by 2029-30.

This Budget confirms that securing the government’s fiscal targets has been achieved at the direct expense of the financial stability and independence of disabled people across the UK.